Springwise: Think consumers can predict the next big book, CD, television show or movie better than top producers and publishing houses can? Media Predict challenges users to put their virtual money where their mouths are with an online prediction market game, where players buy and sell shares based on how well they think new entertainment ventures might do in the real marketplace.
Here’s how it works: when users register, they get 5,000 virtual dollars to begin investing. They can scan the markets for book proposals, up-and-coming musical acts, script treatments and TV pilots. Each is valued in virtual dollars per share based on perceived potential. If shares of a particular book proposal are going for 55 dollars, for instance, the book has about a 55% chance of being published. If a project seems like it might take off, a wise investor can put his or her money behind it. Or, conversely, he or she can sell if stock seems like it might plummet. In doing so, players drive the market value—and those who have a keen eye for the next big blockbuster get rewarded for it. When a deal goes through—for instance, if a book proposal gets signed to a publisher—shares pay off at USD 100 each. And on the flipside, when a venture doesn’t succeed, share value bottoms out at USD 0.
Crowdfinding The Next Blockbuster [Springwise]
Media Market Value
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This sounds like a cool idea but I hate that there is only free money… this usually translates into fake accounts… which translates into skewed results.
Bad information produces bad predictions… which ruins the concept.
Media Predict needs to develop ways to keep fake accounts.